NFL Playoffs: Wild card round preview

As the hours tick down towards kickoff of the 2011 season NFL playoffs, Adrian Mete closely examines the critical matchups which will progress two teams into next week while the other two are sent to their draft boards.

Bengals @ Texans

Important Matchups:

1. Texans Rush Offense vs Bengals Rush Defense

The Texans come into this game with the 2^nd rated rushing offense which produces 153 yards per game. The Texans have a double headed running attack with last year’s leading rush Arian Foster and the overly talented backup Ben Tate. With Matt Schaub on injured reserve, the Texans will be looking to run with the ball more than usual.

The Bengals key to winning this game will be to stop the Texans from running all over them. The Bengals rush defense is ranked 10^th in the league allowing only 104.7 yards per game. The Bengals will likely be stacking the box in this game to stop Foster and Tate while knowing they won’t get burned by rookie T.J Yates.

2. Bengals Passing Offense vs Texans Passing Defense

Rookie Quarterback Andy Dalton along with his favourite target rookie A.J Green come into this game with the league’s 20^th rated passing offense throwing for 208.8 yards per match. Meanwhile the Texans come in with the 3^rd rated passing defense allowing only 189.7 yards per game. Look for the Texans pass defense  led by Jonathan Joseph to completely shut down the Bengals passing game.

Prediction: Bengals 17 Texans 13

Lions @ Saints

Important Matchups:

1. Saints Pass Defense vs Lions Pass Offense

The Saints Pass defense is rated 30^th in the league allowing 259.8 yards per game. They are suspect to giving up big plays on broken coverages. The Lions on the other hand have the league’s 4^th best passing offense which produces 300.9 yards per game.

The Lions love to produce big plays off the hands of Calvin Johnson, this spells bad news for the Saints. The key to this matchup is how well the Saints can contain Calvin Johnson whether it be with double or triple coverage and how well they can contain the big plays Detroit loves.  The key in this matchup for Detroit is for Matthew Stafford to be able to successfully spread the ball around in the case that Calvin Johnson is triple teamed. Stafford needs to take advantage of the single coverage he will see on Burleson and Young.

2. Saints O-Line vs Lions Pass Rush

The Saints have the league’s most potent passing offense with a whopping 334.2 yards per game. With so many possible targets for Drew Brees, it’s hard for the Lions, who enter the game with the leagues 22^nd rated passing defense, to really focus on any one player to stop the passing game. Double covering Colston will just force Brees to exploit single coverage on Graham or a deep option on Meachem.No team has been able to subdue the Saints pass offense at the superdome this year. This means the Lions only hope of slowing down the Saints passing offense comes with their pass rush.

With Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Van Den Bosch, Cliff Avril and Corey Williams anchoring the D-line, the Lions are able to get pressure on the quarterback while maintaining good coverage. The Lions will have to hope that they can once again rely on their front four to bring the pressure as bringing linebackers in on the blitz will just open up the field for Brees to Graham. The Saints have three Pro Bowlers on their O-Line, however, which doesn’t bode well for the Lions. The Saints have been able to pick up blitzes all year long and Brees has the ability to step up in the pocket when pressured around the edges thanks to his perennial pro bowl guards.

3. Lions Rush Defense vs Saints Rushing Offense

Often overlooked is the Saints running game which ranks in at an incredible 6^th in the league with 132.9 yards per game. The Lions will struggle to stop the Saints running game with their lowly 23^rd rated rushing defense which allows 128.1 yards per game. If the Saints are able to run the ball well over the Lions and open up the play-action, the Lions are going to be in for a long day. The Lions will once again need to reply on their front four to stuff the run consistently and force the Saints to pass more than they plan to.

Prediction: Saints 40 Lions 28

Falcons @ Giants

Important Matchups:

1. Falcons Pass Defense vs Giants Pass Offense

The Giants have the NFL’s 5^th best passing game with 295.9 yards per game led by Eli Manning. With targets like Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, they can be very explosive.

The Falcons come in with the NFL’S 20^th rated pass defense allowing 236.6 yards per game. The key for the Falcons winning this matchup is to contain Victor Cruz who has been a nightmare for opposing defences this year. Look for the Falcons to line up Brent Grimes across of Victor Cruz.

The Giants on the other hand will need to make some big plays down the field using their speedy receivers Nicks and Cruz. If the Giants can force some big plays down the field it can really open up lanes in the running game and crossing routes which can help them to control the ball and keep it out of Matt Ryan’s hands.

2. Giants Pass Rush vs Falcons O-Line

The Giants have one of the most feared pass rushes led by Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants have a depleted linebacking corps and their secondary is subject to giving up big plays down the field. The Giants only hope to limiting the damage that Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones can create is to not allow time for their routes to develop and that starts with pressuring Matt Ryan.

The Falcons O-Line has only given up 26 sacks this year and will have to keep that effort up if they hope to win this game. Look for the Falcons to double team Jason Pierre-Paul to limit the damage he can do.

3. Giants Rush Defense vs Falcons Rush Offense

The Giants can’t allow the Falcons to get their running game started. Once Michael Turner gets started, it’s hard to stop him. If the Falcons manage to successfully run the ball, they will keep pressure off Matt Ryan and the Giants Secondary won’t be able to handle Ryan. The Giants will need to get as much productivity out of their front four as they possibly can. This whole game depends on how well the Giants front four can effectively shut down the run game and use that to pressure Matt Ryan.

Prediction: Falcons 34 Giants 27

Broncos @ Steelers

Important Matchups:

1. Steelers Rush Defense vs Broncos Rush Offense

The Broncos enter this game with the leagues 31^st rated passing offense with 152.1 yards per game and the leagues 1^st rated rush offense with 164.5 yards per game. It’s safe to say the Broncos are very one-dimensional and the Steelers need to capitalise off of that fact. Look for the Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to consistently stack the box to shut down the Broncos running game and keep Tebow from leaving the pocket.

If the Steelers manage to shut down the Broncos running game, they also take away Tebow’s biggest passing weapon, the Play-Action. The Broncos, on the other hand, need to come into this game with the intentions of passing the ball. If they can pass the ball successfully in the first half, it will open up room for the running game.

2. Broncos Pass Rush vs Steelers O-Line

The Broncos pass rush has been very good this year, with 41 quarterback sacks. Look for them to bring the pressure on a battered Steelers O-Line and injured Ben Roethlisberger. If the Broncos can successfully bring the heat, they will be able to take away the deep threats of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.

If the Broncos have any hopes of staying close in this game, they’re going to not only need to win this matchup but force the Steelers to hand the ball off as opposed to passing it. The Broncos can’t afford to get into a track meet with the Steelers, there’s just no way they could keep up.

3. The Leg of Matt Prater

It may seem weird, but the Broncos best offensive weapon in this game will be the leg of Matt Prater. Going up against the league’s best offense means the Broncos won’t be seeing the end zone all too much. They’re going to have to settle for as many field goals as they can and hope for some long bombs from Matt Prater if they hope to outscore the Steelers.

Prediction: Steelers 27 Broncos 9